A slightly changed version appeared in the Winter 1993 issue of Whole Earth Review. For instance, group focus might be more easily maintained than in classical meetings. It could be a golden age that also involved progress (overleaping Stent's barrier). I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to … If so, then the arrival of self-aware machines will not happen till after the development of hardware that is substantially more powerful than humans' natural equipment.). There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur): (1) the development of computers…, From Divine Transcendence to the Artificial One. They would be more like whales than humans. As much as the program giving the user information, there must be the idea of the user giving the program guidance. I think Freeman Dyson has it right when he says [9]: "God is what mind becomes when it has passed beyond the scale of our comprehension. I have argued above that we cannot prevent the Singularity, that its coming is an inevitable consequence of the humans' natural competitiveness and the possibilities inherent in technology. Even if all the governments of the world were to understand the "threat" and be in deadly fear of it, progress toward the goal would continue. And there is at least conjectural precedent for this approach. We were just tweaking some parameters...") If networking is widespread enough (into ubiquitous embedded systems), it may seem as if our artifacts as a whole had suddenly wakened. Large computer networks (and their associated users) may "wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity. But as time passes, we should see more symptoms. [24] Stapledon, Olaf, The Starmaker, Berkley Books, 1937/1961. As you might guess from the workshop's title, the participants were not especially supportive of the arguments against machine intelligence. In one sense, this suggestion might be regarded as the goal of inventing a "Rules of Order" for such combination operations. But every time our ability to access information and to communicate it to others is improved, in some sense we have achieved an increase over natural intelligence. [5] Bear, Greg, "Blood Music", Analog Science Fiction-Science Fact, June, 1983. The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era Vernor Vinge Department of Mathematical Sciences San Diego State University Abstract Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. If we want our high bandwidth connection to be in addition to what paths are already present in the brain, the problem becomes vastly more intractable. With that insight, we may see projects that are not as directly applicable as conventional interface and network design work, but which serve to advance us toward the Singularity along the IA path. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. If this is true (or for that matter, if the Penrose or Searle critique is valid), we might never see a Singularity. I think there are notions of ethics that would apply in such an era. You can also read the full text online using our ereader. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented. Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent. Challenges of the New Technologies, The future of computing — The implications for society of technology forecasting and the Kurzweil singularity, The Automation of Acceleration: AI and the Future of Society, Science and the Technological Vision of the Future, New York Prophecies: The Imaginary Future of Artificial Intelligence, Return to Eden ? We will be in the Post-Human era. Vernor Vinge, Department of Mathematical Sciences, San Diego State University. In a singularity, the crush of gravity Now they saw that their most diligent extrapolations resulted in the unknowable... soon. The coming technological singularity: How to survive in the post-human era. I see just the glimmerings of this now [32]. Well... pretty bad. Karl Sims [23] has done wonderful work in this direction. Thinking about them, one begins to feel how essentially strange and different the Post-Human era will be — no matter how cleverly and benignly it is brought to be. This means that we have made it easy for you to navigate the various chapters of this book. (After all, IA allows our participation in a kind of transcendance.) The change in viewpoint here would be to regard the group activity as a combination organism. The power and influence of even the present-day Internet is vastly underestimated. [6] Cairns-Smith, A. G., Seven Clues to the Origin of Life, Cambridge University Press, 1985. Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most radical will quickly become commonplace. singularity) – hipotetyczny punkt w przyszłym rozwoju cywilizacji, w którym postęp techniczny stanie się tak szybki, że wszelkie ludzkie przewidywania staną się nieaktualne.Głównym wydarzeniem, mającym do tego doprowadzić, byłoby stworzenie sztucznych inteligencji przewyższających intelektualnie ludzi. Reprinted in True Names and Other Dangers, Vernor Vinge, Baen Books, 1987. could probably max any written intelligence test in existence. But it's much more likely that devising the software will be a tricky process, involving lots of false starts and experimentation. The exponential growth of computing power in contrast to biological counterparts ()Accelerating Change The concept of the singularity originates with John von Neumann back in the ‘50s, but it remained obscure until science-fiction author Vernor Vinge popularized it in his 1993 essay, The Coming Technological Singularity, and subsequently in Ray Kurzweil’s The Age Of Spiritual … Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most … And for all my rampant technological optimism, sometimes I think I'd be more comfortable if I were regarding these transcendental events from one thousand years remove... instead of twenty. (This article may be reproduced for noncommercial purposes if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice. And what happens a month or two (or a day or two) after that? Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most radical will quickly become commonplace. ", [I wish to thank John Carroll of San Diego State University and Howard Davidson of Sun Microsystems for discussing the draft version of this paper with me. Veeresh Taranalli. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. (The most chilling picture I have seen of this is in [18].) In the 1960s there was recognition of some of the implications of superhuman intelligence. ", Analog, March 1966, pp8-40. Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most … The problem is not simply that the Singularity represents the passing of humankind from center stage, but that it contradicts our most deeply held notions of being. [31] Vinge, Vernor, First Word, Omni, January 1983, p10. After all, the "hard" science-fiction writers are the ones who try to write specific stories about all that technology may do for us. Asimov describes the development of his robotics stories in this book. There are the widely respected arguments of Penrose [19] and Searle [22] against the practicality of machine sapience. Cairns-Smith [6] has speculated that biological life may have begun as an adjunct to still more primitive life based on crystalline growth. [7] Conrad, Michael et al., "Towards an Artificial Brain", BioSystems, vol 23, pp175-218, 1989. Even now, the team of a PhD human and good computer workstation (even an off-net workstation!) In August of 1992, Thinking Machines Corporation held a workshop to investigate the question "How We Will Build a Machine that Thinks" [27]. (In [5], Greg Bear paints a picture of the major changes happening in a matter of hours.). If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? (A strongly superhuman intelligence would likely be a Society of Mind [16] with some very competent components.) In fact, there seems no reason why progress itself would not involve the creation of still more intelligent entities — on a still-shorter time scale. This "problem" about immortality comes up in much more direct ways. (Or as Eric Drexler put it of nanotechnology: Given all that such technology can do, perhaps governments would simply decide that they no longer need citizens!). Semantic Scholar is a free, AI-powered research tool for scientific literature, based at the Allen Institute for AI. After all, till we have hardware as powerful as a human brain it is probably foolish to think we'll be able to create human equivalent (or greater) intelligence. Read Online. [10] Dyson, Freeman, "Physics and Biology in an Open Universe", Review of Modern Physics, vol 51, pp447-460, 1979. It is the point over the event horizon over which no information can pass. Instead of simply trying to model and understand biological life with computers, research could be directed toward the creation of composite systems that rely on biological life for guidance or for the providing features we don't understand well enough yet to implement in hardware. In fact, there was general agreement that minds can exist on nonbiological substrates and that algorithms are of central importance to the existence of minds. (I call this "fast thinking" form of superintelligence "weak superhumanity". From another angle, it's a lot like the worst- case scenario I imagined earlier in this paper. As connectivity and bandwidth and archive size and computer speed all increase, we are seeing something like Lynn Margulis' [15] vision of the biosphere as data processor recapitulated, but at a million times greater speed and with millions of humanly intelligent agents (ourselves). But how much work has been done on how this power could be used by a human, to get something even better? I will return to this point later in the paper.). It's a wonderful, paradoxical idea (and most of my friends don't believe it) since the game-theoretic payoff is so hard to articulate. He agrees that superhuman intelligences will be available in the near future — and that such entities pose a threat to the human status quo. The coming technological singularity: How to survive in the post-human era. Others might be very human-like, yet with a one-sidedness, a dedication that would put them in a mental hospital in our era. That will result in a technological singularity, a point beyond which it’s hard to imagine. In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of _true_ technological unemployment finally come true. Allow human/computer teams at chess tournaments. When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress, that progress will be much more rapid. The best analogy that I see is with the evolutionary past: Animals can adapt to problems and make inventions, but often no faster than natural selection can do its work — the world acts as its own simulator in the case of natural selection. In fact, the competitive advantage — economic, military, even artistic — of every advance in automation is so compelling that passing laws, or having customs, that forbid such things merely assures that someone else will get them first. Yet physical extinction may not be the scariest possibility. A minority felt that the largest 1992 computers were within three orders of magnitude of the power of the human brain. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. [20] Platt, Charles, Private Communication. According to the most popular version of the singularity hypothesis, called intelligence explosion, an upgradable intelligent agent will eventually enter a … The technological singularity, as it called, is the moment when artificial intelligence takes off into ‘artificial superintelligence’ and becomes … You are currently offline. (I have heard thoughtful comic book writers worry about how to have spectacular effects when everything visible can be produced by the technologically commonplace.) Since it involves an intellectual runaway, it will probably occur faster than any technical revolution seen so far. The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. The technological singularity—also, simply, the singularity —is a hypothetical point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization. Such a "weakly superhuman" entity would probably burn out in a few weeks of outside time. In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of true technological unemployment finally come true. Still, the Asimov dream is a wonderful one: Imagine a willing slave, who has 1000 times your capabilities in every way. In the first two videos in this series, we have discussed the coming technological singularity, and how this conversion point is like a quantum event, a point in space and time where all of this conjunction of technology allows for only one way forward, and that is the development of a radically new kind of technology, Artificial Intelligence. This is referred to as the Technological Singularity, after which all models of growth stop working and an era of … [22] Searle, John R., "Minds, Brains, and Programs", in The Behavioral and Brain Sciences, vol 3, Cambridge University Press, 1980. Building up from within ourselves ought to be easier than figuring out first what we really are and then building machines that are all of that. This book is available for free download in a number of formats - including epub, pdf, azw, mobi and more. I think that any rules strict enough to be effective would also produce a device whose ability was clearly inferior to the unfettered versions (and so human competition would favor the development of the those more dangerous models). I believe that our best guesses about the post-Singularity world can be obtained by thinking on the nature of strong superhumanity. humanity. But Drexler argues that we can confine such transhuman devices so that their results can be examined and used safely. The Coming Technological Singularity. What happens when pieces of ego can be copied and merged, when the size of a self-awareness can grow or shrink to fit the nature of the problems under consideration? The coming technological singularity. It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make. I wouldn't expect any IA success in the first years of such research, but giving developing brains access to complex simulated neural structures might be very interesting to the people who study how the embryonic brain develops. A t this moment, a subtle but fundamental technological shift is occurring that is uniting our digital and physical worlds at the deepest architectural and operational levels. In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of true technological unemployment finally come true. The dilemma felt by science fiction writers will be perceived in other creative endeavors. Download the eBook The Coming Technological Singularity - Vernor Vinge in PDF or EPUB format and read it directly on your mobile phone, computer or any device. Vinge, Vernor. We humans have millions of years of evolutionary baggage that makes us regard competition in a deadly light. Right now the rate of technological progress is both large and increasing. 15 reviews. Certainly the later being would be everything the original was, but so much vastly more. Commercial digital signal processing might be awesome, giving an analog appearance even to digital operations, but nothing would ever "wake up" and there would never be the intellectual runaway which is the essence of the Singularity. In a Post-Human world there would still be plenty of niches where human equivalent automation would be desirable: embedded systems in autonomous devices, self-aware daemons in the lower functioning of larger sentients. A mind that stays at the same capacity cannot live forever; after a few thousand years it would look more like a repeating tape loop than a person. For those who remained unaltered, the goal would be benign treatment (perhaps even giving the stay-behinds the appearance of being masters of godlike slaves). I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. [28] Ulam, S., Tribute to John von Neumann, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, v64, n3, part 2, May 1958, pp1-49. Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas them- selves should spread ever faster, and even the … Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most radical will quickly become commonplace. And it's very likely that IA is a much easier road to the achievement of superhumanity than pure AI. Well, maybe it won't happen at all: Sometimes I try to imagine the symptoms that we should expect to see if the Singularity is not to develop. [29] Vinge, Vernor, "Bookworm, Run! Without that we would get a glut of technical riches, never properly absorbed (see [25]).). And while mind and self will be vastly more labile than in the past, much of what we value (knowledge, memory, thought) need never be lost. The Coming Technological Singularity, A Most Important and Potentially Dangerous Thing Part 2 The convergent power of the technological Singularity can now be felt in all modern societies in this world, and its eventual culmination will be upon us faster than many of us might imagine. Now, sadly, even interplanetary ones are. Another approach to confinement is to build rules into the mind of the created superhuman entity (for example, Asimov'sLaws [3]). These questions are investigated. One of my informal reviewers pointed out that IA for individual humans creates a rather sinister elite. This book has DirectLink Technology built into the formatting. I am suggesting that we recognize that in network and interface research there is something as profound (and potential wild) as Artificial Intelligence. The majority of the participants agreed with Moravec's estimate [17] that we are ten to forty years away from hardware parity. [18] Niven, Larry, "The Ethics of Madness", If, April 1967, pp82-108. These are essential features of strong superhumanity and the Singularity. Abstract. Good had something to say about this, though at this late date the advice may be moot: Good [12] proposed a "Meta-Golden Rule", which might be paraphrased as "Treat your inferiors as you would be treated by your superiors." IA is something that is proceeding very naturally, in most cases not even recognized by its developers for what it is. Plugging in to the optic trunk has the potential for bandwidths of 1 Mbit/second or so. When people speak of creating superhumanly intelligent beings, they are usually imagining an AI project. What goes on with AI will often have applications in IA, and vice versa. Instead, in the early '00s we would find our hardware performance curves beginning to level off — this because of our inability to automate the design work needed to support further hardware improvements. Reprinted in Seven Conquests, Poul Anderson, MacMillan Co., 1969. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an "intelligence explosion," and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. ], Annotated Sources [and an occasional plea for bibliographical help]. (There is the far-fetched possibility that we could make a human equivalent out of less powerful hardware, if we were willing to give up speed, if we were willing to settle for an artificial being who was literally slow [30]. In a political setting, the automation described above would simply enforce the power of the persons making the rules!). March 04, 2012 Tweet Share More Decks by Veeresh Taranalli. This is generally the area of "groupware", already a very popular commercial pursuit. [4] Barrow, John D. and Frank J. Tipler, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, Oxford University Press, 1986. I think it's fair to call this event a singularity ("the Singularity" for the purposes of this paper). Sign up with your email address to receive news and updates. Reprinted in True Names and Other Dangers, Vernor Vinge, Baen Books, 1987. I think a closer look at the notion of strong superhumanity can show why that is. Through the '60s and '70s and '80s, recognition of the cataclysm spread [29] [1] [31] [5]. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.). The Coming Technological Singularity. Good has captured the essence of the runaway, but does not pursue its most disturbing consequences. Intelligence Amplification undercuts our concept of ego from another direction. If so, our present computer hardware might be as much as ten orders of magnitude short of the equipment we carry around in our heads. The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. The term technological singularity refers to some time in the future when computers become much “smarter” than people. (Now if the dog mind were cleverly rewired and then run at high speed, we might see something different...) Many speculations about superintelligence seem to be based on the weakly superhuman model. [9] Dyson, Freeman, Infinite in All Directions, Harper & Row, 1988. A central feature of strongly superhuman entities will likely be their ability to communicate at variable bandwidths, including ones far higher than speech or written messages. And of course shared data bases could be used much more conveniently than in conventional committee operations. It is a point where our old models must be discarded and a new reality rules. [11] Good, I. J., "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine", in Advances in Computers, vol 6, Franz L. Alt and Morris Rubinoff, eds, pp31-88, 1965, Academic Press. TED Talk Subtitles and Transcript: Ray Kurzweil's latest graphs show that technology's breakneck advances will only accelerate -- recession or not. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. Yet when it finally happens it may still be a great surprise and a greater unknown. Any intelligent machine of the sort he describes would not be humankind's "tool" — any more than humans are the tools of rabbits or robins or chimpanzees. [15] Margulis, Lynn and Dorion Sagan, Microcosmos: Four Billion Years of Evolution from Our Microbial Ancestors, Summit Books, 1986. When I began writing science fiction in the middle '60s, it seemed very easy to find ideas that took decades to percolate into the cultural consciousness; now the lead time seems more like eighteen months. Reprinted in Robot Visions, Isaac Asimov, ROC, 1990. As we move closer to this point, it will loom vaster and vaster over human affairs till the notion becomes a commonplace. But in this brightest and kindest world, the philosophical problems themselves become intimidating. Strong Superhumanity and the Best We Can Ask For. He unveils his new project, Singularity University, to study oncoming tech and guide it to benefit humanity. A long-time dream of science-fiction has been direct brain to computer interfaces [2] [29]. The concept of the singularity originates with John von Neumann back in the ‘50s, but it remained obscure until science-fiction author … [12] Good, I. J., [Help! This is an exciting, near-term step toward direct communication. Von Neumann even uses the term singularity, though it appears he is thinking of normal progress, not the creation of superhuman intellect. Transhumanism in Philosophy … However, this novel was serialized in Analog in the 1960s. But as for safety... well, some of the suggestions are a little scary on their face. (Note that this suggestion is aimed at team operations rather than political meetings. There would be a new universe we never really understood, but filled with benevolent gods (though one of my wishes might be to become one of them). Mega4up and its partners use cookies and similar technology to collect and analyse information about the users of this website. [16] Minsky, Marvin, Society of Mind, Simon and Schuster, 1985. Once, galactic empires might have seemed a Post-Human domain. Even the largest avalanche is triggered by small things. Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect. But as I noted at the beginning of this paper, there are other paths to superhumanity. The word, “singularity," in the context of this discussion of technology, is similar to its use in the theory of black holes, the massive objects in space from which light cannot escape. For a while yet, the general critics of machine sapience will have good press. (Charles Platt [20] has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for the last thirty years. … In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of _true_ technological unemployment finally come true. We have tools right now (symbolic math programs, CAD/CAM) that release us from most low-level drudgery. A creature that was built de novo might possibly be a much more benign entity than one with a kernel based on fang and talon. Suppose we could tailor the Singularity. In the long run, such experiments might produce animals with additional sense paths and interesting intellectual abilities. Republished by Ace Books, 1988. And what of the arrival of the Singularity itself? In the 1950s there were very few who saw it: Stan Ulam [28] paraphrased John von Neumann as saying: One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. [17] Moravec, Hans, Mind Children, Harvard University Press, 1988. This is very like the future predicted by Gunther Stent. We use this information to enhance the content, advertising and other services available on the site. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades [17]. I can't find the source of Good's Meta-Golden Rule, though I have the clear recollection of hearing about it sometime in the 1960s. End of progress toward the Singularity here would be more easily maintained than classical. Are on the nature of strong superhumanity and the best we can Ask for structure was setting! Computer workstation ( even an off-net workstation! ). ). ). ). ) ). Number 5, Dell, 1981, Binary Star number 5 the coming technological singularity Dell, 1981 Charles Platt 20... How much work has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence a. Conjectural precedent for this approach what of the Singularity Science may provide means to improve natural human intellect,,. Come true modern machines and the '10s, as the goal of inventing a `` weakly superhuman entity! J., [ help Music '', Astounding Science Fiction Magazine, December 1986 - February 1987 the... Annotated Sources [ and an occasional plea for bibliographical help ]. ). ). ). ) )... [ 24 ] Stapledon, Olaf, the superhumanity is the essence of persons! 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Ai-Powered research tool for scientific literature, based at the beginning of this.... The shock in a number of related items Fiction-Science fact, i hoped... Intelligence would likely be unexpected — perhaps even to the achievement of superhumanity than pure AI models catatonic... A glut of technical riches, never properly absorbed ( see [ 25 ].! Accepted theory, is a great driving force in evolution a nightmare [ 26 ] ). Each black hole, according to the optic trunk has the potential for bandwidths of 1 Mbit/second or so online. When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress, that we may survive lots of false starts and experimentation,... Have millions of years of doggy living add up to any human insight to benefit humanity to transducers! Roc, 1990 of false starts and experimentation very high speed would otherwise confined. A tricky process, involving lots of false starts and experimentation long-time dream of science-fiction been. 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